The bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on 20 September 2008 has hit Pakistan hard. The reputation of the hotel as a meeting-point and social hub for the capital’s political and diplomatic class ensured that the attack - which killed fifty-three people and wounded 250 - would receive the maximum worldwide publicity that the assailants doubtless wanted. But the effect of the enormous blast involving around 600 kilograms of explosives also reinforced the insecurity of the working-class Pakistanis who were its principal victims. Even more, the incident has intensified serious concerns over the political future of Pakistan itself.

In assessing the country’s predicament at this critical juncture, three elements that often fail to get the attention they deserve need to be borne in mind: the role of Washington and the way it is perceived by Pakistanis; the distinction between the country’s ostensible (or political) government and its real (or shadow) one; and the role of class and its changing dynamics in Pakistan’s economy and society. Read more »

In my study on the nature of conflict in FATA and Afghanistan, I have sifted through numerous research papers and studies of US think tanks like Carnegie, RAND, the Council of Foreign Relations and Heritage. Some names like Ashley Tellis, Richard Haas and Lisa Curtis are familiar and well known. Others, though known but not so familiar, are Daniel Markey, Jayshree Bajoria and Eben Kaplan. I am amused by the inherent contradiction in opinions on the Pakistani Army over the past ten years. I question myself; were these analysts wrong in the past, or are they expressing views to substantiate a certain perception being created about Pakistan and its armed forces?

My mind goes back to the early years of the Cold War and how similar think tanks worked overtime to create funding for the Military Industrial Complex. Whatever the nature of perceptions these studies tend to create, it is clear that Pakistan is heading for some very challenging times. Pakistan has moved from the crossroads of geography to the crosshairs of a gun-sight while US think tanks are working overtime to shape an environment.

Recent studies are unanimous that the Pakistani Army is ill-organised and poorly trained to conduct counterinsurgency operations in FATA. These views also strengthen the growing perception that in order to comprehensively defeat the anti-US militants providing sanctuaries to the Al Qaeeda Strain in FATA, outside military intervention is indispensable. The argument goes that if the Pakistani Army, despite being paid cannot do it, we will.

Notwithstanding the damage this propaganda could cause to US-Pakistan relations, such inflammatory statements remain the currency of the present US presidential debate and the media. Physical US operations inside Pakistan and round-the-clock surveillance with drones have already diminished the international boundary. Now the entire Afghanistan-Pakistan Pakhtun belt is being seen as one war zone. The most dangerous development is the perception that more and more Pakistanis now see the resistance as a war against US aggression. Read more »

My dear Ali:

You have been bombarding me with questions about the US and NATO attack on us. Look, son, they attacked us a long time ago. The only difference is that now they have escalated and exacerbated the situation by actually putting boots on our soil. Given Admiral Mullen’s remorseless statement, its entirely possible that this will happen again. Given Bush’s statement that the next president’s biggest challenge would be Pakistan and if there were another 9/11 it would come from FATA, it is certain. Given General Kiyani’s admirable response, it is also entirely possible that Pakistan will retaliate. Then America may escalate from helicopter gunships to F-16s or even stealth bombers. I hope this doesn’t happen, for it spells near total destruction for us, or at least part of our country, all of which are equally dear to us. The situation is so dangerous that apparently European NATO has distanced itself from it, except Britain. They know that Pakistan will make Iraq look like a picnic and Afghanistan like a massage parlour. The New York Times, which reflects the US establishment’s thinking, claims that Bush authorised entry of American military personnel into Pakistan. To discredit Kiyani, whom they were lionising only a few days ago, they also claimed that he knew about the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, allegedly by the ISI.

Can we stand up to them, you ask, and cite the example of Iran? I have told you that Iran has the most potent weapon in the world. It’s called Unity. They demonstrated it in their war with America’s puppet Saddam’s Iraq. They are undefeatable. So were the Vietnamese for exactly the same reason. Unity is one of the three words of our national motto, the others being faith and discipline. We have none of them. But if we can forge unity in our ranks, faith and discipline will inevitably follow. Then no power on earth can defeat us. Though we seem incapable, an American attack might do just that: bring us together as a nation like nothing ever has. I told you I am an incorrigible optimist in even the bleakest situations. So should you be. So should all young men and women.

If we cannot forge unity, then we will face a situation far more dangerous than in 1971 when our country was rend asunder. We refused to respect the verdict of the people, lost a war against India and half our country with it. Why? Because we attacked our own people for the ‘crime’ of having voted for their choice so they were not with us when war came. Then India was backed by a the Soviet Union, while our great friend and ally the United States stood by twiddling its thumbs. Now we are being attacked directly by the sole and strongest-ever superpower, our old friend and ally America. And again the people of the Frontier may not be with us for the grievous harm that has been caused to them. There is still time to reclaim their emotional allegiance.

General Kiyani’s statement was the voice of the people, just what they wanted to hear. They have become sceptical over the years, and who can blame them? If American soldiers set foot in Pakistan again and Kiyani’s words become bullets, the people will be galvanised instantaneously. It will then be for the government to mobilise a galvanised people, unify them and fire them with nationalist zeal. It will have to open many other fronts, diplomatic and media especially. Which means it will have to open the strategic communications front to manage perceptions in our favour before they are formed against us. The war will be won. So, finally, will real independence, for we would have paid a price for it. And that is when we will treasure Pakistan as more precious than our lives, not precious because it has been good to live off for a few. If we fail, then we are staring certain slavery in the face.

Let’s get down to brass tacks. The US wanted five things from Musharraf. When he wouldn’t comply they engineered his removal. Read more »